Donald Trump,as an owner manager, and past Chief Executive Officer is used to largely getting his way at least within the institution he led, Trump Inc.
If he did not know before, he does now that the US government is a huge leviathan with many points of deep dark loci of breeding disruption, fake news leaks, complex legislative maneuvering, blockage and delay to cause chaos and gridlock even impeachment.
Then there is a judiciary that can be worst than obstructionist but can practically act like a soft coup. Then, not to forget though I largely try to sometimes, that there is the fifth estate acting like a fifth column he might think to oust him or politically cripple him
While there might be somewhat serious divisions within some of these organisms as to whether they want part or in whole his tax reform, levels of defence expenditures, health reform etc, they are for the most part uncompromising on Russia. These elements well ensconced in the Washington beltway, sometimes referred to as the Deep State will not compromise on attacking Russia and specifically Putin and giving NATO almost a free card to complement such a policy.
The Deep State, that is still for the most part stuck to American exceptionalism, if not whole hog interventionist any more would rather start “World War III” with Trump if he tries “detente” with Putin. For Tump, the dealmaker this underscores how sick the mentality is in the Washington swamp where all the alligators come to surface to try and devour him even simply when refusing to use Senator McCain’s historionics to put Putin in his verbal place.
For Trump the pragmatist and more interested in completing his domestic agenda like in creating and protecting jobs, he will do one thing now is my best guess of this mercurial and somewhat unpredicble tweeter of a president.
He will attempt where possible not to speak of Russia, not to speak of Putin and off dump these issues of Russia to Deep State sympathizes like his defence secretary knowing full well that people like Secretary of State Tillerson and a few others are around to keep the anti-Russia tone under some control.
Trump’s more sophisticated people know that in Europe, the debate about Russian sanctions and related issues of Ukraine, including Crimea are more divided there. That in fact it is one of several key issues that might spell the doom of liberals like Chancellor Merkel from losing control of the EU and even causing the EU to break down if not up. If not her own government.
Anti-liberal and anti-globalist forces are strong in Hungary and Poland and very serious in Austria, France, parts of Italy, Slovakia and rising elsewhere in the Mediterrean and Balkans. Greece is sick of Merkel and Putin has serious followings or acceptability in some of these states.
The far right leader in Germany, granddaughter of the last Nazi finance minister has been receiving an appreciable portion of German vote. That shows you the extent of how crazy the anti-establishment anger is that is generating in some case pure madness there against Brussels and support for Putin. Moderation is needed on all sides including how Russia is handled to ensure the worst dark forces of populism do not break out like a busted dam.
Given the way immigration and refugees issues have played out in Europe, even the Front National which should be a highly secondary party, could win the French presidential elections. All while the Deep State madly in panic tries to destroy “Russophile” like presidential candidates Fillon and Le Pen with scandals they could have stuck in one form or another with their favourite anti-Russia candidates?
Europe is clearly not the US or more pluralistic Canada. For these European populist movements are more virulent and often nastier in tone against certain minorities. And some of them are using the Russia card to protest destructive economic sanctions impacting certain European groups from whom they want their votes and even financing. Those views will get stronger, there.
Nothing launched by the US Deep State against this changing more populist and less anti-Russia Europe with likely little lukewarm support from the White House may stop Europe from killing sanctions or reducing them to dust in years ahead. At the very least, they will be moderated within the Trump term,I predict.
My view, given with what is happening with the divisions in Europe over Russia, and the general disinterest by most Americans in feeling really threatened by Putin, is that Putin and Trump will wait it out before making a worthwhile deal. The Russian economy is recovering enough with little unemployment, overall and little debt including ever moderating foreign exchange pressures. Oil and other commodity prices important to Russian government revenues are improving.
And not to forget, Putin has modern nuclear missiles so all of NATO on his borders is really immaterial in the end if it were to happen though certainly not desired or helpful. Then there is China that knows if Russia falls to the Deep State, it is next. More push on Russia means more undoing of the brilliant realpolitik of Kissinger-Nixon to pull and keep China more towards the US orbit.
Putin though must get out of east Ukraine eventually and let a properly monitored referendum take place on Crimea s annexation. However, if this does not happen, my guess is the whole sanction bundle in much of Europe will peter out none-the-less or as lawyers have found over the years can be gotten around. Not before some bluster and armaments build up in NATO which will generally not affect Moscow to back away.
In the meantime, Trump has a lot of gator hunting to do while he drains the swamp. They will get exposed more and more as the dirtied waters shrink. Those who have been undermining his agenda especially those doing so illegally may have an abrupt wake-up while even feeling protected in all the remaining mud they have sunk into. Time will tell.
After all President Reagan, initially the hard talking, anti-Russia politician got a deal with Russia despite the Deep State trying to destroy him too. Moscow awaits not at all for the US to change and get around or moderate this Deep State. It just gets on with moving its own agenda forward by people who are very, very crafty one would have to agree on this.
Keep your friends close and I would recommend keep Putin closer while you can before stronger forces threaten one day in the medium future to take over in Moscow as I outline the possibility of in my new book, “Operation: Golden Bear”. Truth is sometimes stranger than fiction, and very nasty indeed to those trying to bury it too much.