My New Year’s Wacky Predictions: Careful of the improbable that could become probable

Wishing my 110,000 visitors a great 2016 with a few exceptions.
Here follow my wacky predictions for 2016. Enjoy or maybe not for some of you.

New Year predictions

Investment

Saudi Arabia will begin to take back market share in oil even in the United States.

That point will represent the beginning of the beginning of a serious rebound in oil prices and further recovery in big oil company shares.

BP, Exxon will be buys and certain Russian, Asian and Latin American ones.

Price war between Russia and OPEC leading to 25 dollar a barrel or less.

60 to 65 cent Canadian dollar at the worst after major adjustment higher.

Interest rates go up again in the US.

Gold begins to go up in US dollar terms and various precious metals.

US dollar stabilizes in appreciation against a good number of emerging market currencies unless war breaks out in Europe.

US stock market correction, substantial but not excessive.

US treasuries and corporate bond correction

New attack by Swiss National Bank on Swiss franc and this will not be fully successful. It could be quite massive.

New high for Swiss franc possibly to around one franc equals 1.10 US.

China market, new moderate correction.

Erosion in US dollar usage in trade but not appreciable except for medium and longer term.

All this means a need to begin shifting from US currency despite trend in US interest rates to some degree already baked in.

Politics

Trump gets the Republican Party nomination beats out Rubio and Cruz.

Trump makes up with Republican establishment picking Rubio for VP thereby strengthening position with Hispanic voters.

Hillary loses the US election. Older white male vote overwhelmingly goes to Trump. Trump does much better than predicted with minorities. Trump starts an anti-politically correct, anti-liberal interventionist “revolution”.

Voting most polarized ever along gender, religious, gun control, generational and north versus southern states.

ISIS fighters increasingly return to countries whence they came causing havoc and some go underground due to stepped up attacks by coalitions. The western and Russian campaigns start having their affects. More terrorism as a response.

Golden Bear is published and begins to prove partly clairvoyant.

Caliphate shrunk to much smaller area.

Populist left and right in western Europe see continuing gains.

Hollande late 2016 announces intention to roll back Russian sanctions, probably after Trump elected.

As a preventive measure to move by Hollande against full sanctions, Nuland and McCain make one last ditch effort to provoke Putin into major war thereby further polarizing Europe and China.

That’s all for now folks. The chances of some of the above happening are improbable. But as we have seen more and more, it is the improbable that is becoming the probable. And beware of the bear – or is it the black swan we need to worry about?

Stay tuned.

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