A lot has followed my analysis of sanctions primarily led by Washington vis a vis Russia. Since those very angry days of the first applications, there has been quite a degree of escalation of tensions in Eastern Ukraine no doubt courtesy of Putin in part as a response to the coup in Kiev.
Yet very recently attacks seemingly applauded by the Governor of Odessa, a Senator John McCain, neo-conservative accolyte, on Crimea’s electricity grid bode poorly. If the idea is to be sure eastern Ukraine has no Russian “proxy” troops that act was not a confidence builder.
Those who insisted on the sabotage know this and clearly want no peace with Russia but to generate enough provocation to make Russia react aggressively thereby breaking the Minsk accords and to give cause for a NATO belligerent action. They are obvious, reckless and foolhardy and probably increasingly desperate as Putin consolidates in Crimea.
What should have happened were direct talks between Kiev and pro Moscow militants to set up the new decentralized Ukraine state there consistent to the Minsk accords. But McCain head of the congressional arm forces committee looks like he does not want to play ball and Obama, as a lame duck president and certainly no Putin fan will have difficulty or that much interest in controlling McCain and his friends at State.
McCain and his Ukrainian acolytes will not want to wait around for “pro-Putin” Trump presidency who will be sure to dump from influential roles Nuland, Kagan, Powers and let Graham, McCain and Wolfowitz wither in the political wind. With Trump in power there would be a sea change between America and Russia and that makes these people and Kiev plenty nervous and more dangerous in creating disparate scenarios of which the Odessa “Gauleiter” was a failed specialist in his own state of Georgia.
It is clear that there is real division between powerful congressional figures like Senator Lindsay Graham, the “Gauleiter” of Odessa on one side and President Obama. They and parts of the US military complex are wagging the Ukrainian and US foreign policy tail.
The result when Putin’s patience runs thin may be to seize the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine entirely. Kerry and Obama need to act more pro-active on the diplomatic front with Kiev to prevent them from creating such a deterioration.
Otherwise combined with the substantial face lost on the Russian downed plane, expect the worst. Will these war mongers on the US side not get satiated enough with disaster and mayhem as they caused in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya as well as Syria in part.
I guess the answer is no and Putin may be ready to give another lesson. The new sanctions on the Russian elite will only make this negative outcome even more probable. But Putin like a pro may wait for Obama to go and hope for Trump to emerge. My guess is if Trump does not win and Hillary does, Russia will be at war with Hillary. And it will be merciless especially if she turns up the economic heat with any more serious sanctions. Millions could die and/or be displaced.
Simply speaking Hillary is seen by Putin and the vast majority of Russians and probably even the Chinese as a destructive opponent to Russian interests. Her election will make the bear grit its teeth and raise its claws. What comes after God only knows. If Hillary wins pray harder for peace and light a candle to prevent World War III. I already did at my local Buddhist shrine.